For more than five years, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in Beijing did not end China’s voyage to the South China Sea – and the next Philippine leader must have the courage to challenge Beijing, a political and risk analyst said.
The Philippines will hold a general election to elect a new president in May as Duterte’s six-year term draws to a close. Duterte has sought closer ties with Beijing and has announced his intention to set aside his own tournament with China in the South China Sea.
China and its Southeast Asian neighbors, including the Philippines, have been embroiled in regional conflicts for decades in the South China Sea. China has an image of bully around the world especially in economic, trade, territory disputes and Maritime trade. China’s Dominance in Maritime shipping has boosted in recent years and South china sea dispute is aimed in gaining one hand dominance in the region.
China wants almost every water route. Over the past few years, China has built seashell islands, while Chinese fishing vessels and naval vessels are lined with areas known worldwide as foreign.
“The best situation in the Philippines could be the change of mindset of the elected leader in May 2022,” said Peaches Lauren Vergara, head of intelligence at Amador Research Services, a research and consulting firm.
The next Philippine president should get rid of “the losing attitude of the current leadership,” and strongly oppose China’s claims, Vergara wrote in a December report published by the Asia Society Policy Institute.
CNBC has approached the Philippine Foreign Ministry, as well as Chinese embassies in Singapore and the Philippines, to comment on the report. No one responded at the time of publication.
Also Read: China Buying influence around the World, Dominating Information warfare: manipulating social media
Conflicts with China
The Philippines won in 2016 when an international court in The Hague dismissed China’s claims in the South China Sea, which contains the world‘s busiest shipping lanes. The judges ruled that a certain segment of the so-called international sea belonged only to the Philippines.
China overturned the decision. Duterte downplayed the decision in the hope that Beijing would benefit economically and said the Philippines was not like China and both have no march in the face of conflict.
With just a few months to go before Duterte’s presidency, China’s promised investment in the Philippines does not live up to expectations, while tensions between Manila and Beijing rise again in the South China Sea, according to a December report by the International Crisis Group.
“Many Filipinos are increasingly skeptical of China’s closeness when it comes to stopping claims of various maritime controversies,” reads the report.
The South China Sea, which is a resource-rich watershed, contributes about 27% of the total fishery production in the Philippines, Vergara said in a report by the Asia Society Policy Institute. A group of scientists has reportedly warned that Chinese activities in rival waters threaten the fishing industry.
Meanwhile, China’s disagreements have hampered efforts to test Philippine oil offshore.
“This has serious implications for the country’s ability to secure energy as its main source of natural gas supply – Malampaya – is on the decline,” Vergara said.
Some in the Duterte government strongly opposed the existence of Chinese ships in parts of the South China Sea that were internationally recognized as belonging to the Philippines.
In May, Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. directed a strangely violent tweet in Beijing as the two countries quarreled over the South China Sea. Locsin Jr. accused China of violating its “friendship” with the Philippines.
Also Read: Amazon supports China’s propaganda arm to gain business market in china
Philippine presidential race
Philippine’s Presidential Race: China’s growing resilience and Duterte’s “humility” in Beijing have exacerbated issues surrounding the South China Sea in the Philippines, “Vergara said.
Some analysts say candidates in the Philippine presidential election who appear to support China could face public opposition.
Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. – the son and name of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos – led a recent opinion poll on the presidential race. In a December poll conducted by independent investigator Pulse Asia, 53% of respondents chose Marcos Jr. as their favorite presidential candidate.
Compared to Duterte, Marcos Jr. he will seek “balanced relations” with the US and China if elected, says Peter Mumford, a Southeast Asian head of risk of negotiating with the Eurasia Group, in a report last month.
Also Read: COVID-19 a planned virus and deliberately leaked from Wuhan lab of China: Harvard scientist
Freedom of Navigation, U.S.-China competition
The South China Sea is one of the most controversial issues in the geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China. Officials with US President Joe Biden have called China’s allegations “illegal” and “bullying” at sea.
The Philippines is in a precarious position in that tournament. The Southeast Asian country has a defense agreement with the U.S., while China is its largest neighbor and our main economic partner.
“An important question remains as to whether the Philippines can move between China and the US without a nuclear confrontation that forces it to choose a side,” the International Crisis Group said.
“At the moment, Manila is attractive. But its measurement may not be delayed anytime soon as Beijing wants to express its regional ambitions and Washington backs down,” he added.
The tanker said the Philippines could not resolve the South China Sea dispute alone. The state must co-operate with its neighbors on the same issues of concern, such as fisheries management and law enforcement, to manage territorial disputes.
The Philippines should also aim to finalize a “code of conduct” between Southeast Asian countries and China to control maritime conflicts, while keeping Beijing’s communication channel open to reducing tensions, the International Crisis Group said.
“None of these measures will resolve the ongoing maritime dispute, but they can help keep the risk of lower maritime incidents from escalating.”