“You can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbors. Eventually, those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard.” As the Taliban, once nurtured by Pakistan, prepares to bite back, around 15,000 fighters are reportedly marching towards the Pakistani border.
Escalating Tensions: Pakistan’s Airstrikes and Taliban Retaliation
The latest escalation follows Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan, which provoked a fierce response from the Taliban regime in Kabul. These airstrikes, targeting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in Paktika province, resulted in 46 deaths, mainly women and children, according to Taliban officials. A Pakistani official stated that the strikes targeted “terrorist hideouts inside Afghanistan, using a mix of jets and drones.” In retaliation, the Taliban has vowed to respond to what they termed a “barbaric” act of “clear aggression.”
Dual Taliban Challenge for Pakistan
Pakistan is now grappling with two Taliban factions: the Afghan Taliban and the TTP. The TTP, operating from the Afghan-Pakistan border, has significantly increased terror activities in Pakistan since the Afghan Taliban’s return to power. According to the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies, fatalities from terror attacks in Pakistan surged by 56% in 2023 compared to 2022, with over 1,500 deaths, including 500 security personnel.
Strained Relations and Tactical Missteps
Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban have soured further after Islamabad accused Kabul of cross-border terrorism. In response, Pakistan has imposed trade restrictions, expelled 500,000 undocumented Afghan migrants, and implemented stricter visa policies. Meanwhile, military actions against the TTP have persisted. The situation deteriorated following a TTP attack on a Pakistani checkpoint, which resulted in 16 Pakistani soldiers’ deaths.
Historical Context: Pakistan’s Support for the Taliban
Since the mid-1990s, Pakistan has played a crucial role in supporting the Taliban, initially to destabilize the Soviet-backed regime in Afghanistan. The Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI, was instrumental in the Taliban’s formation and sustenance. Despite international pressure and UN Security Council resolutions, Pakistan continued to aid the Taliban, seeking “strategic depth” in the region.
Proxy Warfare and Backfiring Strategy
Pakistan has been accused of using the Taliban as a strategic tool against India, particularly concerning the Kashmir issue. Groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba received training in Taliban-controlled areas. However, this strategy has backfired, leading to what experts call Pakistan’s “dual-Taliban problem.” The Afghan Taliban’s rise to power and the TTP’s emboldened presence have created a volatile situation for Pakistan.
Hillary Clinton’s metaphor of snakes in the backyard has come full circle for Pakistan. The Taliban, once seen as a strategic asset, is now a formidable force threatening Pakistan’s stability. As Islamabad navigates this complex and dangerous landscape, the repercussions of its past policies continue to unfold dramatically.