DELHI, India — As the 14th Dalai Lama marked his 90th birthday this month, the quiet celebrations in his exile home of Dharamsala were overshadowed by a question of immense geopolitical gravity: Who will succeed him? The ensuing struggle will not just determine the future of Tibetan Buddhism; it will define who controls the headwaters of a continent.
While the world rightly focuses on the spiritual and political dimensions of the succession — a contest pitting the Dalai Lama’s followers against Beijing’s insistence on appointing its own candidate — it is easy to miss what may be, for China, the far more significant prize. Controlling the next Dalai Lama is the surest way for Beijing to solidify its grip on the Tibetan Plateau, not just as a strategic buffer against India, but as the source of Asia’s most critical resource: water.
For Beijing, this is not merely a matter of religious authority. It is about securing what strategists call “hydro-hegemony.” The Tibetan Plateau, often called “Asia’s Water Tower,” is the origin of great rivers like the Mekong, the Brahmaputra, and the Yangtze, which are the lifeblood for nearly two billion people downstream in India, Southeast Asia, and China itself. To control the source of these rivers is to hold a potent lever of geopolitical influence.
This power is already being wielded. China’s vast dam-building projects in Tibet have given it the ability to regulate, and in some cases stanch, the flow of water to its neighbors. In 2021, for instance, a new mega-dam on the upper Mekong cut the river’s flow by an estimated 50 percent for a period, causing alarm and resentment in Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, where the livelihoods of 60 million people depend on the river’s natural rhythm.
For India, China’s primary regional rival, the threat is even more direct. The Brahmaputra River, vital for agriculture in India’s northeast, originates in Tibet as the Yarlung Tsangpo. By controlling its flow, Beijing can create leverage in its long-running border disputes with New Delhi — a strategic tool that could be used to reward cooperation or punish defiance without firing a single shot. This mirrors India’s own strategic thinking; in 2025, New Delhi threatened to restrict water access to Pakistan amid renewed conflict, underscoring the rising currency of water in regional power plays.
This quest for control is rooted in a deep-seated historical narrative. Beijing views its authority over Tibet as absolute, dismissing colonial-era borders like the McMahon Line as illegitimate relics of its “century of humiliation.” Securing the loyalty of the Tibetan people through a handpicked spiritual leader is seen as the final step in cementing its sovereignty and quieting a source of international criticism that it regards as Western interference in its sphere of influence — a modern corollary to America’s Monroe Doctrine.
But beyond the historical grievances and strategic positioning, China’s push is driven by the urgent demands of the 21st century. As climate change accelerates, securing a stable water supply is paramount for China’s goal of self-sufficiency. And water is not the only resource at stake. Tibet holds some of the world’s most significant deposits of lithium, the “white gold” essential for the batteries that power electric vehicles and grid-scale energy storage. As Beijing seeks to dominate green technology supply chains and insulate its economy from American tariffs and trade pressure, unrestricted access to Tibetan lithium is a national security imperative.
The approaching succession crisis is therefore a flashpoint for a convergence of issues: spiritual freedom, historical claims, and a ruthless competition for the resources that will power the future. The quiet search for a young boy who is the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama is set against Beijing’s methodical campaign to install its own choice. The Dalai Lama has insisted the process will be managed by his Swiss-based Gaden Phodrang Trust, declaring that no one else has the authority “to interfere in this matter.”
But for China, interference is the entire point. The selection of the 15th Dalai Lama is not just about concluding a chapter of Tibetan history. It is about seizing the ultimate high ground, ensuring that from the roof of the world, the rivers — and the power — flow in its favor.