When Donald Trump returned to the White House, he promised to restore American strength abroad. Instead, his second term has accelerated a retreat from global leadership, alienated allies, and emboldened rivals. The result is a United States increasingly viewed as an unpredictable — and sometimes untrustworthy — partner. Nowhere is this more visible than in the deepening ties between India, Russia, and China, a strategic convergence that would have been unthinkable just a decade ago.
From “America First” to “America Alone”
Trump’s foreign policy has always been transactional, but in his latest term, the transactions have come with higher costs and fewer returns. Within months, the U.S. had:
- Exited the Paris Climate Agreement (again), signaling to allies that Washington’s commitments can be reversed with each election cycle.
- Withdrawn from the World Health Organization, ceding influence in global health governance to Beijing.
- Abandoned the OECD global tax pact, undermining a rare consensus on regulating multinational corporations.
These moves were framed as defending U.S. sovereignty. In practice, they created a vacuum that China and Russia have been quick to fill — offering themselves as more consistent, if not more benevolent, partners.
Tariffs and the Trust Gap
Economic policy has been equally disruptive. Trump’s imposition of 25% reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, followed by an additional 25% penalty on imports linked to Russian oil, pushed duties to 50% — among the steepest in the world. The administration justified the measures by accusing New Delhi of “funding Russia’s war machine” through discounted crude purchases. India dismissed the charges as “unjustified and unreasonable,” pointing out that its energy security needs are non‑negotiable.
The tariffs have not only strained U.S.–India trade but also eroded trust in Washington’s reliability as a strategic partner. Similar tariff escalations against Canada, Mexico, the EU, and Japan have left even long‑standing allies questioning whether the U.S. still values its alliances.
The SCO Summit: A Snapshot of a Shifting Order
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, in September 2025 offered a vivid tableau of this realignment. Cameras captured Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walking alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping — a visual shorthand for a geopolitical pivot.
Behind the optics were substantive agreements:
- India and China agreed to resume direct flights and reopen border trade.
- Beijing pledged investment in India’s electric vehicle sector.
- Modi and Putin reaffirmed defense and energy cooperation, despite U.S. sanctions pressure.
Trump’s public response — a sarcastic social media post lamenting that “we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China” — was widely read as an acknowledgment of diminished U.S. influence.
A Strategic Own Goal
For two decades, U.S. policy in the Indo‑Pacific sought to cultivate India as a counterweight to China. By alienating New Delhi, Trump has undermined that strategy and strengthened the very bloc Washington hoped to contain. The SCO, once dismissed in Washington as a loose Eurasian forum, is now emerging as a platform for coordinated resistance to U.S. tariffs and sanctions.
Meanwhile, European allies are hedging their bets, deepening trade with China and exploring security arrangements that do not depend on U.S. guarantees. Japan and South Korea are quietly expanding defense dialogues with ASEAN states, wary of Washington’s unpredictability.
The Cost of Unpredictability
Foreign policy experts warn that alliances are built on trust — and trust, once broken, is hard to restore. Trump’s approach treats alliances as short‑term deals rather than enduring commitments. This has left partners unsure whether the U.S. will stand by them in a crisis, prompting them to diversify their diplomatic and economic relationships.
The Tianjin summit underscored a hard truth: the vacuum left by U.S. disengagement is being filled not by like‑minded democracies, but by strategic competitors eager to rewrite the rules of the global order.
Lessons from History
The U.S. has faced moments of relative isolation before — after Vietnam, during the Iraq War — but those periods were followed by deliberate efforts to rebuild alliances. What is different now is the speed and scale of the shift. In less than a year, Trump’s policies have accelerated a multipolar world in which Washington is just one of several competing power centers.
The irony is that Trump’s rhetoric about “strength” has coincided with a visible weakening of U.S. influence. By prioritizing short‑term wins over long‑term relationships, the administration has traded strategic depth for tactical spectacle.
The Road Ahead
Reversing this trajectory will require more than a change in tone. It will demand a recommitment to multilateralism, a recalibration of economic statecraft, and a recognition that allies are not just assets to be leveraged, but partners to be cultivated.
For now, the image from Tianjin — Modi, Putin, and Xi walking in step — stands as a warning. In the contest for global influence, relationships matter. And under Trump, America’s relationships are fraying.