A Western intelligence report said top Chinese officials told top Russian officials in early February that they could attack Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, according to senior management officials from Biden and a European official.
The report reveals that top Chinese officials had some knowledge of Russia’s military plans or intentions before the offensive began last week. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in February. 4 before the opening ceremony of the Olympics. Moscow and Beijing issued a 5,000-word statement at the time announcing that their alliance was “without limits,” criticizing NATO’s expansion and insisting that they establish a new “truly democratic” world order.
Trade intelligence between Chinese and Russian officials was divided. It was compiled by the Western intelligence service and considered trustworthy by the authorities. Top US officials and allied governments passed it on as they discussed when Putin might invade Ukraine
However, different intelligence services have different meanings, and it is not clear how widely the information is shared.
One intelligence official said the incident did not indicate that the negotiations were taking place at Xi and Putin’s level. Some intelligence officials declined to comment further. The officials commented on the report on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the intelligence service.
Asked by email on Wednesday whether Chinese officials had urged Russian officials to delay Ukraine’s invasion until after the Olympics, Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Ambassador to Washington, said, “These allegations are baseless speculation, and are intended to be suspicious. and anointed China. ”
China hosted the closing ceremony of the Olympics on February 20. The next day, Putin ordered several Russian troops to enter a terrorist-controlled area in eastern Ukraine after state television broadcast a meeting between him and the National Security Council and, separately, with great outrage. a statement in which he said that Ukraine should be part of Russia. In early February 24, Russian troops launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including attacking cities with ballistic missiles, weapons and tanks.
American and European officials said they found it hard to believe that it was coincidental that Putin’s attack did not begin until after the end of the Olympics. In August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia during the Beijing Summer Olympics, much to the chagrin of some Chinese officials.
In winter, Russia withdrew troops from its border with China and other eastern parts to the Ukrainian-Belarus border in preparation for the offensive. The move showed a high level of trust between Russian and Chinese officials.
China and Russia have for many years been strengthening their economic, communications and military ties. Xi and Putin met 37 times as world leaders ahead of their talks in Beijing before the Olympics. The ambitious statement issued by the two countries at the summit shocked US and European officials, especially since it was the first time that China had openly sided with Russia on NATO and European security issues. European leaders have criticized China and Russia in recent weeks.
Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., A member of the House Intelligence Committee, said he did not know the wisdom of the Russia-China talks on Ukraine, but Beijing’s support for Moscow was clear.
“The Chinese support all of Putin’s claims to accuse Western countries of offending Russia,” Gallagher said. “I do not see any change in Chinese attitudes toward Russia. They are still in a de facto relationship against the West at the moment. “
For months some US officials have been trying to hire China in an effort to stem the tide of war in Ukraine.
Days after President Joe Biden spoke to Xi at a video conference on November 15, senior US officials decided to launch an investigation into the formation of Russian troops around Ukraine in top Chinese officials to try to persuade Putin to step down. The Americans spoke with Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador to Washington, and Wang Yi, the foreign minister, among others. At the 12th summit, which included Washington between US officials and a Chinese ambassador just hours before the Russian offensive, Chinese officials expressed doubts that Putin would invade Ukraine, U.S. officials said.
After one negotiation in December, U.S. officials received intelligence indicating that Beijing had shared information with Moscow, telling Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord and that China would not try to block Russia’s plans, U.S. officials said.
The US intelligence findings and evaluations of Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine were generally accurate. The American people launched a campaign last week to share intelligence with the nations, especially the allies, and to introduce non-publicity to create pressure on Russia to stop any planned attacks. William Burns, the CIA director, flew to Moscow on November 2 to deal with the Russians, and on November 17, US intelligence officials shared their findings with NATO.
British officials have speculated that Putin’s pre-Olympic attack is possible but not possible, according to several London intelligence officials. That was partly based on a Western intelligence report, but especially in an analysis of the analysis that Russia’s plan to defeat Western sanctions relied heavily on China’s support and the view that Putin would not risk angering Xi.
British officials also assessed whether a joint statement issued by Putin and Xi was a clear indication of China’s support, something Beijing would not hesitate to offer if Putin was willing to cover the Olympics by launching an attack before the end of the Games, according to the report. to people accustomed to British thinking.
U.S. intelligence officials have seen Moscow make final preparations on February 10, a series of pre-invasive attacks.
The joint intelligence service found in the interconnected media that Russian officials were being summoned to a meeting, which some Western governments do not believe was the key decision for the military authorities to launch an attack. This intelligence is part of what led to Jake Sullivan, a national security adviser at the White House, warning on February 11 that Russia’s invasion could come just before the end of the Olympics. Many officials also said that at that time US officials took intelligence that Russia considered February 16 as the possible date for the war. That prediction seemed wrong, though only a few days later.
In examining Russia’s disregard for China’s widely understood desire for peace by the Olympics, intelligence agencies considered a number of factors. While U.S. officials acknowledged that Putin’s relationship with Xi was significant, they believed that Russia wanted to start as soon as possible, and finish, before the invasion of its troops was reduced. Putin, the tested American officials, also did not want to be seen as an overreacting leader.
Both U.S. and British intelligence officials erroneously verified that security issues plaguing Russian troops in Belarus during the military exercise had been resolved, allowing the attack to continue, according to a source close to the investigation. In fact, supply problems continued to plague Russian troops as they migrated to Ukraine.
Since the outbreak of the war, Chinese officials have sided with Russia. They expressed support for Russia’s concerns about NATO and spoke of “sovereignty” in vague terms. The Chinese government that read the telephone interview on Friday between Xi and Putin repeated those points. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespersons have refused to call Russia’s actions “an attack” and have blamed the US for creating tensions in Ukraine.
Chinese officials have also criticized sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and European countries.
On Wednesday, Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, at a press conference in Beijing said Russia and Ukraine should “seek a political solution that addresses legitimate security concerns on both sides.”
China is trying to deport thousands of its citizens, including diplomats, from Ukraine. About 6,000 citizens were in Ukraine before the protests began. At least one Chinese national was injured in a shooting on Tuesday as he tried to leave Ukraine, Wang said. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Tuesday about Chinese nationals in the country, according to an official Chinese report read out in the interview.
It is not yet clear what guarantees, if any, Russian officials have provided to Chinese officials about the attack. On February 24, the day the full offensive began, Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said, “We have noted that Russia today announced the launch of a special military operation in eastern Ukraine. “
U.S. and European officials are looking at China to see if it will help Russia avoid sanctions or rescue the Russian economy. Prior to the attack, Beijing and Moscow announced a 30-year contract to buy gas through a new pipeline. China has also lifted restrictions on Russia’s wheat exports. But US officials expect Chinese-owned banks to avoid open sanctions for fear of jeopardizing their global trade.