The tradition of North Korean leaders delivering major New Year speeches ended in 2020. Instead, Kim Jong Un now announces policy and budget decisions through two key meetings: the year-end plenary session of the Central Committee and the January meeting of the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA).
Following this pattern, the Eighth Central Committee’s 11th plenary session convened from December 23-27, while the 14th SPA held its 12th session from Jan. 22-23. Both bodies addressed seven agenda items. The Institute for Far Eastern Studies, a leading research center on North Korea, subsequently organized an academic conference on Feb. 4 titled “An Assessment of the North Korean Situation in 2024 and Projections for 2025.”
Key Developments from Recent Policy Meetings
In these meetings, North Korea characterized 2024 as a year of “confrontation between the bloc of autonomy and the bloc of hegemony.” The regime acknowledged facing “major obstacles” from flood damage, “hostile forces’ warmongering,” and sanctions, while highlighting achievements in its “people-first principle” and military development.
Looking ahead to 2025, North Korea emphasized three main points:
- The year’s significance as the final year of the current five-year plan, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of Korea’s liberation and the Workers’ Party founding
- Focus on education and regional economic development
- An ultra-hardline strategy toward the United States, though specific details remain undisclosed
Notably, the SPA session, held after Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, was primarily technical in nature. Kim Jong Un’s absence and the lack of discussion on foreign policy or defense matters suggests a deliberate approach to avoid sensitive topics.
Critical Factors Shaping 2025
Several internal and external factors will likely influence North Korea’s trajectory in 2025:
On the internal front, 2025 marks the final year of the five-year economic and military development plan, as well as the second year of both the “20×10 regional development policy” and “two hostile states” policy. The year also brings significant anniversaries, including 80 years since liberation from Japanese rule and the Party’s founding. Additionally, the regime will oversee the election of 15th SPA members while preparing for the Ninth Party Congress, expected in January 2026.
External factors that will shape the year include North Korea’s ongoing military involvement in Russia’s Ukraine war and the Trump administration’s approach to both North Korea and the Ukraine conflict. Any potential dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea could significantly impact various domains, from nuclear issues to politics, military affairs, and the economy.
Inter-Korean relations will likely remain minimal due to North Korea’s “two hostile states” principle, military commitments in Ukraine, and its response to political developments in South Korea, including President Yoon’s martial law declaration and impeachment.
Strategic Outlook
Kim Jong Un’s 2024 decisions—particularly the “two hostile states” principle, departure from traditional reunification policy, and Ukraine war involvement—represented significant risks. However, 2025 may present opportunities for these gambles to pay off.
North Korea’s likely strategies include:
- Solidifying the “two hostile states” theory
- Leveraging its Ukraine war involvement
- Exploring dialogue with the United States while maintaining distance from South Korea
Denuclearization appears increasingly unlikely given recent developments. The regime has passed legislation declaring its nuclear weapon state status, issued orders to strengthen nuclear capabilities, and revealed uranium enrichment facilities. This stance is further reinforced by North Korea’s strategic alignment with China and Russia, its participation in the Ukraine war, and continued ICBM development and provocations.
Internal Focus and Domestic Priorities
Despite external relationships, Kim Jong Un’s primary focus remains domestic. Key priorities include:
- Countering South Korean influence
- Reinforcing socialist principles
- Mobilizing the population through anniversary celebrations and Party Congress preparation
- Addressing internal corruption and party discipline
Looking Ahead
North Korea appears to be positioning 2025 as a year for consolidation and adjustment, with 2026 marked for new initiatives. This approach encompasses:
- Nuclear and missile capability enhancement
- Military readiness improvement
- Implementation of the “people-first principle”
- National mobilization through revolutionary spirit
- Youth ideological education
- Legitimizing North Korea’s independent path
- Distinguishing Kim Jong Un’s leadership from his predecessors
- Increasing visibility of Kim Ju Ae and the ruling family
A potential earlier-than-expected Ninth Party Congress could capitalize on the party’s 80th anniversary momentum. However, major foreign policy shifts may wait until developments in the Ukraine conflict become clearer and Party Congress preparations advance.
The regime’s fundamental challenge remains internal: addressing changing social attitudes, particularly among younger North Koreans drawn to individualism and outside information. The “two hostile states” policy reflects this concern, attempting to sever psychological ties with South Korea.
For South Korea, the path forward requires maintaining a firm commitment to peaceful unification under liberal values while actively supporting North Korean human rights. This approach should include facilitating information flow to North Korean society and pursuing sustained international cooperation, all while working toward organic, bottom-up change within North Korea.
February 26, 2025 at 11:26AM
by DailyNK(North Korean Media)