Russia and Belarus will begin a 10-day joint military exercise on Thursday, sitting on a train one of the most intimidating aspects of the Kremlin’s military construction on Ukraine’s borders.
Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of staff, arrived in Belarus on Wednesday to oversee the training.
Russia has deployed up to 30,000 troops, two S-400 fighter jets from the air and several warplanes in Belarus to train in partnership with the Belarusian army. Satellite imagery shows that most of the computer equipment has been moved to areas near the Ukrainian border.
Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, reportedly told Frenchman Emmanuel Macron this week that troops would leave Belarus at the end of February 20 trials. Even if that happens, tests show that the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, is a strong ally of Putin’s Ukrainian policy.
“Lukashenko will not be able to resist the provision of Belarusian territory for any purpose that Russia needs, even if it passes, using Belarusian military bases, airports, and possibly an air defense system,” said Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst.
From the border with Belarus, it is only 130 miles (210km) down the main road to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, and the joint tests add a new front to the potential Russian offensive in Ukraine. There is also a threat from the south, where Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula in 2014, and to the east, where Moscow led a coup against the Kyiv regime and mobilized troops near the Russia-Ukraine border.
When Russia invaded Ukraine for the first time in 2014, Lukashenko remained neutral, despite the fact that Belarus and Russia are part of a single “Union”. He refused to recognize the united Crimea as Russia, and he maintained a warm relationship with the then Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko.
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Confidentially, he told Poroshenko that he would not allow the Belarusian territory to be used by Russia in any Ukrainian invasion. When Volodymyr Zelenskiy was elected in 2019, Lukashenko once again extended a friendly hand.
“You have never had problems from Belarus and Belarus, you will never have them. We will always be the kindest and most loyal people of all your supporters and colleagues, “Lukashenko told Zelenskiy in October 2019.
Then in August 2020, massive protests erupted in Belarus when Lukashenko declared a landslide victory in a criminal election. The protest movement came after the overthrow of his regime, but Lukashenko regained control of the demolition.
After some days of silence, the Kremlin finally decided to support its troubled ally, offering Lukashenko support and financial support as many western countries imposed sanctions and refused to recognize the election results.
“Russia is slowly trying to lower the prices of that support, and we see Lukashenko doing things that he has previously opposed,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, Britain’s former ambassador to Belarus and a senior colleague at the International Institute for Strategic. Lessons.
The announcement of the exercise, which came after Russia had already begun mobilizing troops near the Ukrainian border, was a sign of Lukashenko’s determination to support Moscow. Over the past few weeks, he has made several statements to prove his integrity without hesitation.
“In the West, it is important to immerse the Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood in blood,” Lukashenko said two weeks ago, speaking in his annual address to an audience of thousands. “But some people may not like it. We will return Ukraine to our Slavic fold.”
In an interview this week with Vladimir Solovyov, a Kremlin-backed television presenter, Lukashenko went on to say that if Ukraine starts attacking the Donbas, it will send Belarusian troops to fight with Russian troops to postpone the attack.
“The Belarusian army will do the same with the Russian army, it will be a collective response. Do you think we are playing in the southern border today?” asking, directing joint training exercises. Lukashenko recently offered to handle Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Shraibman said none of these things could have happened, noting that Lukashenko’s usual mode was a lot of promising and trying to get a permit. “I think his actions, his actions will always be behind his promises. No matter what you promise Putin, he has not been given a chance to deliver, ”he said.
This was illustrated by a recent announcement in Moscow stating that Belarus would send troops to assist the Russian army in Syria, which was quickly postponed by Lukashenko. However, the Belarusian leader’s chamber has been severely reduced and appears to have done nothing but allow Russian troops to use Belarus territory as they wish in sending anti-Ukrainian protests.
With the support of Moscow and the control of the security forces and the army, Lukashenko’s domestic position seems secure at the moment, as his foreign policy is increasingly determined by Moscow. Most opposition groups like them were arrested or forced to flee the country.
Later this month, he will hold a constitutional referendum, widely denounced as illegal in western countries, which analysts say is intended to pave the way for him to step down at some point but end up in control of everything.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who opposed Lukashenko in the 2020 by-elections and later fled to neighboring Lithuania, criticized Lukashenko’s joint exercise and support for Moscow’s position on Ukraine. “The Belarusian people are not a threat to Ukraine, the state is a danger,” he said last week, after holding a video conference with several Ukrainian MPs.