As Brussels becomes more alienated from realities on the streets, the union’s forthcoming elections might serve as a wake-up call
The European Union held a summit this week at which it aimed to convince Ukraine of its support for as long as it’s needed. Hungary balked, but its resistance was limited.
For prestige reasons and to demonstrate strategic unity, it was critical for the EU to secure approval for the long-term financing of Kiev. No one knows what will happen next, but it will be possible to adjust plans if necessary.
The EU summit reflected an interesting phenomenon – the ever-diverging agendas of the Western European ruling classes and those they govern. The main issue in Brussels is aid for Ukraine, while at the same time farmers are rioting in France and the Benelux countries, and Germany is paralyzed by a series of strikes. Of course, this is not because of Ukraine, but driven by the fall in living standards.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), an influential transnational non-governmental organization, has published an analysis of sociological polls predicting the outcome of the European Parliament elections in June. Let’s be clear: it is not the European Parliament that determines the policies and prospects of the Old World. Whatever its eventual composition, this will be no revolution.
However, the peculiarities of the pan-European representative body are such that citizens vote, as we used to say, with their hearts and not with their pockets, as happens in elections to national parliaments. Voters’ immediate well-being depends on these representatives, which is why the experienced ones are often preferred over clever ones. But an MEP doesn’t determine anything in the life of an ordinary European, which is why you can let your feelings run wild and send the one you really like to Olympus without fear of things going down the drain. In other words, the European Parliament election results are a good indicator of the real mood.
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The authors expect the June vote to show a sharp voter shift to the right, not towards moderate conservativism but to far-right parties, commonly referred to as populists. Many of them belong to the Eurosceptic category. They predict that such movements will come first in nine of the EU’s 27 countries and that they’ll significantly strengthen their position in nine others. In the European Parliament itself, for the first time in 45 years of elections to this body, a right-wing majority is likely to form, ranging from Christian Democrats and classical conservatives to national radicals.