As Americans remain fixated on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the presidential election on November 5th, the ultimate outcome of the contest for control of Congress will significantly influence the victor’s ability to implement their agenda.
Historically, new presidents have enjoyed a congressional majority, with most having “long coattails.” However, this year’s race for congressional control appears as close as the presidential contest, casting doubt on this traditional outcome.
Moreover, this time no doubt Donald seems aggressive and influential, but the public sentiment remains to be seen.
‘The Press United’ political jury’s forecast of the congressional elections reveals that, taken individually, each chamber is more likely than not to see a change in partisan control. The Republicans have a 66% chance of flipping the Senate, while the Democrats have a 61% chance of winning the House of Representatives.
Nonetheless, this does not imply that the two parties will simply trade places on Capitol Hill. If Republicans manage to win the Senate, their House candidates will likely exceed expectations as well, and vice versa. After accounting for these correlations, The Economist’s model finds that the two most probable outcomes remain the typical presidency-House-Senate “trifecta” for either Republicans or Democrats, with both parties having around a one-in-four shot of securing one.
The next-likeliest scenarios are those with a Republican Senate and a Democratic House, either during a Harris presidency (16% chance) or a Trump one (15%). The prospect of divided government—and with it the shelving of much of the new president’s agenda—looms large.
The model’s most eye-catching result is probably the relatively high chance it gives Democrats of hanging on to the Senate, given the difficult races several of their incumbents face. The party holds 51 of the 100 seats (counting four supportive independents) but is guaranteed to lose one due to Joe Manchin’s retirement.
Three factors account for the model’s insistence that Democrats have a plausible path to victory in the upper chamber. First, Democratic candidates in many competitive races enjoy surprisingly large leads in polls. Second, the model is not yet ready to write off Jon Tester, despite recent polls putting him down by 6-8 percentage points. Historically, incumbents have enjoyed unusually large advantages in states with small populations, like Montana.
Finally, a loss in Montana or Ohio is not necessarily the end of the story. Recent surveys put Democratic challengers to Republican incumbents in Florida and Texas just a few points behind. Additionally, Deb Fischer, a Republican incumbent in Nebraska, appears to be in a remarkably tight race against Dan Osborn, a former union leader running as an independent.
The contest for the House, where Republicans currently outnumber Democrats 220 to 212 (with three seats vacant), is even tighter. Democrats have a narrow lead of around two percentage points in “generic-ballot” surveys. They have also performed extremely well in special elections to replace departing House members, a strong indicator for normal elections.
Gerrymandering, which used to give Republicans a big advantage in the House, is becoming more of a tie. On average, The Economist’s model concludes that Democrats need to win the national popular vote only by a single point to secure a majority in the House.
California is crucial, with six House races likely determining control. Four of these are in the urban sprawl surrounding Los Angeles, and two are in the Central Valley. Five are majority-minority with large Hispanic or Asian populations and are held by Republicans.
New York is another key state, where Democrats are on the offensive, targeting four Republican incumbents in districts that voted Democratic in 2020.
While a president can achieve much without congressional approval, control of the Senate enables judicial nominations. The congressional toss-up amplifies the uncertainty surrounding this year’s presidential election.
‘The Press United’ political jury gives Republicans a 66% chance of flipping the Senate and a 39% chance of winning the House. Democrats have a 61% chance of winning the House and a 34% chance of holding the Senate.
As the election approaches, one thing is clear: the outcome will have far-reaching implications for the future of American politics.