WASHINGTON – The world economy would rise if the Ukraine conflict ended and sanctions imposed on Russia were lifted, former Virginia state senator Richard Black said.
“One of the things that few people think about, but if this war went away and if the sanctions were lifted, the world economy would skyrocket,” Black said. “Suddenly, countries around the world would increase their prosperity, inflation would drop. And a big part of that is because Russia is a huge exporter of natural resources. And they’re the number one exporter of wheat, fertilizer, wood from natural gas. They’re a huge exporter of oil, aluminum , titanium, gold. Just a huge amount of products.”
Black went on to say that Russia has traditionally supplied almost half of Europe’s diesel to run their construction machinery, buses and trucks.
“The ability to trade back and forth is so important between Russia and Europe and the idea that somehow they would be at war is really quite insane,” the former lawmaker said. “But right now we’re led by people who are not very rational. I know that Russia would entertain these talks at any moment. I mean, they made it quite clear, but they’re always open for talks. And it’s really the NATO powers that push.”
Black went on to say that it is also NATO that constantly uses false flag propaganda attacks like the one in Buch where they claimed that the Russians who were withdrawing killed a lot of people.
However, Black emphasized that there is a growing number of people who are very strong supporters of peace and opponents of war, and expressed the hope that these people will gain more influence.
“I’ve always thought that the ideal template for peace in Ukraine would be the same thing that was done during the Cold War, when there was an agreement between the Soviet Union and the other allied powers – the United States, Great Britain and France. and they all agreed to the demilitarization of Austria,” he noted. “What they did in 1955 was that all the occupying powers withdrew their forces from Austria and in exchange Austria changed its constitution and said it would forever remain a neutral non-belligerent country. They also said they would never allow foreign troops to be stationed inside Austria.”
Black recalled being with the United States Army in Europe in the early 1980s, when there was tremendous tension all along the eastern and western borders. He shared that he then took his wife and children and went to Austria.
“We didn’t know what to expect, but we thought that would sort of be a high level of tension,” he said. “They waved us through, checked ID and, and I discovered here was Austria and they were celebrating Christmas. People were joyous and happy. The Cold War didn’t exist in Austria. There was no threat of anybody attacking them from either side. But it has to be guaranteed by the Soviet Union and by the United States, Great Britain and France.”
Black said that would be an ideal situation.
“I don’t know if that can ever be achieved. But I think there has been some movement in that direction,” he added. “Two months after Russia crossed the border into Ukraine … then Ukraine and Russia started talking about peace. And they set up a framework for peace and almost got peace when Prime Minister Boris Johnson unexpectedly flew out and basically ordered Ukraine to make peace and move on at war. He would never have done it without coordination with the White House.”
The prospects for peace in Ukraine will improve if Republicans take control of the House of Representatives, Richard Black added.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is expected to become speaker of the House in the next congressional term, with Republicans expected to win a narrow majority after Tuesday’s midterms. He is reportedly moving quickly to secure enough votes in the Republican Party to be nominated, however, the Republican Freedom Caucus could stand in his way, media reports said.
“If [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi loses control of the House – in other words, she’s not the speaker of the house – she is a very powerful, bloodthirsty voice for war, and so if the Republicans get control, regardless of who ends up being the speaker, then it will be tremendously better [for] the cause of peace,” Black said.
McCarthy has previously said that Republicans will not provide unlimited funding to Ukraine if Republicans control the House.
“I think that his comment where he said that Ukraine will not get a blank check in the future, I think he was sort of campaigning for the support of these conservatives [in the Republican party],” Black said. “McCarthy seems to be talking as though he was receptive to do some cuts to the Ukraine funding.”
US media reported on Wednesday that the United States and other allies believe Ukraine will not be able to achieve all of its battlefield objectives and are pushing Kyiv to enter peace talks with Russia this winter to resolve the ongoing conflict.
Black said the appearance of the Biden administration encouraging negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is political posturing, but he did not rule out that US lawmakers could begin to make some changes toward peace.
“I think there will be some talk of negotiations that will be totally an illusion, just a smokescreen, but at the same time there are other elements within the Republican Party, and at some point, there may be some elements of the Democrat party, that would start to oppose the war,” Black said.
Černý pointed out that the absence of an expected red wave in the midterm elections was an obstacle to peace in Ukraine, and he does not expect the new Congress to have much impact on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
“I don’t know if there’s going to be enough pressure on Biden to get him to take any action,” Black said. “I certainly wish there was more pressure from Europe, but right now they seem to be almost completely dominated by the United States.”
“I do know that there are elements within the House that are growing in strength that are skeptical of funding for the Ukraine war,” Black said. “I’d be surprised if they’re able to cut off the funding, but I think that the funding will perhaps slow down as a result of the Republicans if they win the House.”
The Europeans, Black added, should have a little more backbone to dictate what happens in Ukraine.
Black said he also believes Germany should demonstrate greater independence from the United States, adding that they allowed the UK to sabotage the Nord Stream pipeline in close coordination with the White House.
Black also said former President Donald Trump would be able to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin to resolve his concerns regarding Ukraine to avoid conflict, Black said.
U.S. Republican lawmakers, skeptical of funding Ukraine, are unlikely to be able to end it, but if they gain control of the House of Representatives, they can slow it down, Richard Black said.
“If the Republicans have the majority, then they pick the speaker. The speaker has tremendous control over what happens with the legislation. The speaker also appoints all the committee chairs who have tremendous power over the agenda and what moves forward and who get killed in committee, ” he said. “If you look at the situation right now, when you have Nancy Pelosi as speaker, she’s operated with a very, very slim majority. There are 435 seats in the House, and she only had an eight-seat majority, but a very, very small one. But she was able to control enormous power because she controlled all the valves that controlled the flow of things in the house.”
Black said it’s not entirely clear how powerful the new Republican speaker will be.
“However, the Republicans will exert an enormous amount of influence if they do end up controlling the House as I expect they will. So they may not do radical things like the Democrats have done. They may try to sort of take compromised positions. I don’t know that will sort of depend on the leadership,” he added.
Republicans appear to have gained enough seats in Tuesday’s midterm elections to take control of the House, while the Senate remains in play with three races still too close to call. Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is expected to replace Nancy Pelosi as speaker when Congress next meets in January.