As ballots were counted in Knesset elections on Wednesday, all signs pointed to a landslide victory for opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu and his bloc of right-wing, far-right and religious parties, ending a political crisis that has seen five general elections in four years.
With 86 percent of the votes counted, a bloc of parties loyal to Netanyahu were predicted to win 65 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, a comfortable majority.
The numbers were expected to shift because officials had not yet begun counting so-called double-envelope ballots cast by members of the security forces, prisoners, people with disabilities, diplomats serving abroad and others, but there was a significant shift in the balance between Netanyahu’s bloc. and his opponents were not considered likely.
The coalition to become Israel’s next is made up of Netanyahu’s Likud party, the ultra-Orthodox Shasa and Torah United Judaism parties, and the far-right Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich, which includes the extremist Otzma Yehudit Itamar Ben Gvir faction.
Ben Gvir is considered the election’s biggest star, rising from the leadership of a fringe party to become the popular leader of a party representing about 10% of the Israeli electorate.
If the results do not change significantly, it would mark a stunning comeback for Netanyahu, who is currently on trial in three corruption cases, and end four years of political gridlock that has dragged the country through a series of elections.
But critics warn it could also hand power to ultra-nationalists like Ben Gvir and his political partner Bezalal Smotrich, who could disenfranchise Arab citizens, defy the Supreme Court and pass legislation that would remove Netanyahu’s legal woes and damn it. up the social divide.
A critical remaining factor was the fate of the left-wing Merec party and the hard-line Arab party Balad, both of which hovered just below the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%. Meretz was predicted to get 3.19%, while Balad was at 3.01%, meaning that as things stand, neither party will be in the next Knesset.
The only scenario that could upset most of Netanyahu’s bloc is if both Merec and Balad finish above the threshold and if the left-wing Labor Party – currently at 3.57% – falls below it. Channel 12 pollster Mano Gevo said Wednesday morning that the overall distribution of seats between blocs is unlikely to change significantly, although further shifts in party totals are possible.
Hebrew media reported that Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party was already preparing for a possible transition of power, with Lapid intending to call Netanyahu once the final results are announced, which could take several days.
Facing potential political oblivion, Meretz MP Mossi Raz told Army Radio on Wednesday morning: “What we are seeing are partial results. We remain cautiously optimistic. We will continue to represent our constituents, even if outside the coalition or outside the Knesset.
Meanwhile, an unnamed senior Labor politician was quoted as hitting out at party leader Merav Michaeli after Labour’s apparently poor performance.
A party member said Labor – the ruling party during Israel’s first few decades and a major political force until a few years ago – was saved by party loyalists who voted for Labor despite Michaeli, the Ynet news website reported.
“We expect her to draw clear conclusions or we will send her home,” he said. “It is unbelievable that the Labor Party is trying to cross the electoral threshold. Merav is a colossal failure and detachment from reality.”
On the other side of the political divide, Ben Gvir told reporters that he would work for all the people of Israel.
Ben Gvir vowed to be part of a “totally right-wing” government, but added: “I want to say that I will work for all of Israel, even for those who hate me.
Netanyahu himself told supporters earlier in the morning that he was “on the brink of a huge victory” and promised a government that would restore Israel’s pride and make it strong again.
“If the actual results reflect the opinion polls, I will form a national government that will take care of all the citizens of Israel,” he told supporters, using a word also used to describe nationalist sentiment.
In a speech shortly before Netanyahu’s, his main rival Lapid refused to concede defeat, telling the party’s faithful in Tel Aviv to wait until all the votes were counted and saying his Yesh Atid party had secured a record level of support.
“They want a politics that is not based on hatred and incitement,” Lapid said of his constituents.
One party that fell well below the threshold was Ayelet Shaked’s Jewish Home, which ran a pro-Netanyahu campaign but met with little support because of anger among its potential electorate at Shaked, who joined the current government that last year after a 12-year she overthrew Netanyahu. years in power.
The Jewish Home received only 1.17% of the vote, according to incomplete results, but a Channel 12 News report claimed that Shaked’s run to the finish was coordinated with Netanyahu in an effort to boost the vote total and thus increase the number of votes needed to surpass 3.25% electoral threshold and potentially helps sink some rival parties.
On Tuesday evening, pre-election polls by Israel’s main networks gave Netanyahu a clear path back to power, with 62 seats between his Likud faction, far-right Religious Zionism and the Haredi Shas and United Torah Judaism parties. At least 61 seats are needed to secure a majority and form a government in the 120-member Knesset.
As pollsters revised their findings and early returns began to come in overnight, the numbers shifted more in Netanyahu’s favor.
Israel has been rocked by political turmoil since the fall of the Netanyahu-led government in late 2018. Two rounds of elections, in April 2019 and in September 2019, did not produce a winner, and a short-lived unity government was formed after the third vote in 2019. March 2020 collapsed after less than a year.
As of June 2021, Lapid’s unlikely coalition he led with his predecessor as prime minister, Naftali Bennett, managed to oust Netanyahu from power after more than a decade, but an alliance that included the right-wing Yamina and the Islamist Ra’am struggled to overcome. deep ideological divisions and collapsed, partly due to pressure from Netanyahu and his allies.