US President Joe Biden’s warning of unspecified consequences if China supports Russia has small Asian nations worried that they will face similar sanctions for maintaining neutrality in the war against Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.
Southeast Asia will host two summits later this year – the Group of 20 summit and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) – which usually includes Biden, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping under one roof. And the two host countries – Indonesia and Thailand – are beginning to worry about being caught in the middle, although the summits are still months away and it is unclear whether Putin will appear.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi has secretly expressed concern over US threats of a second sanction against China because Jakarta leaders see Beijing’s stance on the war as neutral, according to a source familiar with the situation, who asked not to be named.
As Indonesia plans to host Russia at the G20 summit, the man said, leaders in the Southeast Asian economy are worried that the US will step up pressure to leave the country’s neutral policy. Indonesia wants to keep the agenda limited to economic policies, global health and climate change, the man said.
Thailand is also worried that it will be forced to take sides if the U.S. and its allies boycott the APEC summit on Russia’s involvement, according to The Nation newspaper. A report quoting the Royal Thai Armed Forces Security Center – a intelligence unit in the country’s armed forces – noted that Russia had included eight APEC members and further warned US sanctions on member economies as the war dragged on.
Uncertainty underscores the danger that the Ukrainian war will accelerate the global economic fragmentation that focuses on national security risks over supply chains, advanced technology and personal data for millions of citizens. While the US has not yet determined which trade deal with Russia could trigger a second sanction, the frequent use of such measures against China over the past few years poses significant risks to exporting countries that rely on US and European markets.
“Even before the Ukrainian invasion, international order was under tremendous pressure due to tensions between major powers,” Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat said at a conference on Tuesday. , and they are a serious threat to the legitimacy of international law. ”
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi arrives for the Afghanistan summit in the United Nations, Geneva, in 2018. Reuters
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi arrives for the Afghanistan summit in the United Nations, Geneva, in 2018. | Reuters
Russia was expelled from the Eighth Party in 2014 following Putin’s ouster from the Crimea, which came after the overthrow of Ukraine’s Kremlin-backed Ukrainian leadership. However, it would be very difficult to get Russia out of the G20 or APEC, which has many members, including China, one of Putin’s main allies.
Preparations for the APEC summit in November are in the early stages of preparation, according to Tanee Sangrat, a spokeswoman for Thailand’s Foreign Ministry. “We have never been pressured to raise the issue of this year’s conference,” he said in a statement. A spokesman for the Department of Defense declined to comment.
Teuku Faizasyah, a spokesman for Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, said he was not in a position to confirm talks involving Marsudi while adding that Indonesia does not yet have such pressure. But, he added, “we are really concerned about the prospect of a collision to divert the G20’s focus and co-operation away from the economy and development.”
‘Argumentary tools’
Speaking to Marsudi last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the use of joint sanctions and called on Indonesia to use its G20 presidency to remove “disruption.” He also said the region should avoid “clashes between blocs” and avoid allowing “small and medium-sized countries to be used as instruments of war between the superpowers,” according to a Chinese statement.
Marsudi simply called the conversation with Wang a “good call,” without elaborating. Indonesia did not directly criticize Moscow even though President Joko Widodo wrote on Twitter “Stop the war” immediately after the attack, and his government backed the UN resolution framework. demanding that Russia withdraw its troops. Although Russia makes less money from Indonesian trade, state-owned energy company PT Pertamina has a joint venture with Russia’s Rosneft to build a 13.5 billion refinery.
Other countries in the region are in a similar situation. While Russia created less than 1% of global trade with Southeast Asia by 2020 and is too small for foreign investment, countries may be reluctant to cut ties with their main arms source: Russia has more than a quarter of the region’s weapons in two decades. to 2020.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo during an interview at the presidential palace in Jakarta, November 13 | Reuters
Indonesian President Joko Widodo during an interview at the presidential palace in Jakarta, November 13 | Reuters
“Few groups that may be patient in their criticism of Russia or who may be able to sever economic ties with Moscow, especially India and Vietnam, remain highly dependent on Russian arms,” said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “The management understands that some of our colleagues are in a difficult situation on this issue and are less likely to confirm it.”
India is the most notable example, relying on Russia for most of its weapons. While Biden called India’s response to Putin “shaky,” officials in New Delhi are confident they won’t face sanctions because the U.S. still views it as important partner in countering China.
While the threat of U.S. sanctions has prompted Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia and the Philippines to avoid purchasing some Russian military hardware, all the major powers must still tread carefully in dealing with the region, said Ian Storey, senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“Southeast Asian countries are not without agency, and their stances they adopt toward the conflict will be based on their national interests and foreign policy outlooks,” he said. “Overt pressure from Washington, Beijing or Moscow to pick sides will likely backfire.”