The increase by 2 percentage points to 15% per annum is the biggest increase since May of last year
The Bank of Russia on Friday raised the key rate by 200 basis points to 15% per annum, stating that current inflationary pressures have significantly increased, to a level above the regulator’s expectations.
According to the statement, steadily rising domestic demand is increasingly exceeding the economy’s ability to expand the production of goods and the provision of services. Inflation expectations remain elevated, the central bank said, adding that lending growth rates are invariably high.
“The updated medium-term parameters of fiscal policy assume a slower-than-expected decline in fiscal stimulus in the years ahead. Therefore, it is required to additionally tighten monetary policy to limit the upward deviation of inflation from target and return it to 4% in 2024.”
According to the regulator’s updated forecast, annual inflation in Russia will range from 7.0% to 7.5% in 2023. Given the current monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.0–4.5% in 2024 and stay close to 4% further on, it pointed out.
The central bank noted that recent data for the third quarter suggests the economy is expanding faster than the regulator expected in September.
“High domestic demand is inducing the upward deviation of the Russian economy from the path of balanced growth. This is strengthening persistent inflationary pressures,” it stated.
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October 27, 2023 at 04:24PM