Days after the PLA Navy celebrated ten years of its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, a Chinese security officer and military expert said India should be ready for a PLA aircraft carrier battle group to sail in the Indian Ocean very soon.
The comments could cause deep tremors in New Delhi, which is already worried about China’s antics on the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, said that despite the Himalayan conflict that “cannot be resolved anytime soon”, New Delhi should not see Beijing as a threat to its interests in the Indian Ocean. .
Speaking at a King’s College seminar, Zhou further argued that India must understand that Chinese naval activity in the Indian Ocean will increase.
“In order to protect China’s growing interests in the Indian Ocean and maintain the security of strategic sea lanes, the Chinese navy must maintain or even strengthen its presence in the Indian Ocean,” he said.
“It is only a matter of time before a strike group of Chinese aircraft carriers appears in the Indian Ocean.” If Delhi views the Indian Ocean as a “Great Ocean for Hindus” or India as a “network security provider” for the Indian Ocean, there is likely to be friction and even violence between the two sides, Zhou said.
These statements are in stark contrast to China’s position that its navy serves only to protect its national sovereignty, unlike the US Navy, which uses its carrier battle groups to achieve “world hegemony”.
China’s state-run Global Times previously reported that its newest Fujian carrier would only be deployed in the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
In addition to hinting at an increased PLAN presence in the Indian Ocean region, particularly through the deployment of carrier battle groups, Zhou pitted the United States against India. According to a Chinese military strategist, the real threat to India’s rights and interests in the Indian Ocean is the United States, not China.
He cited the passage of the USS John Paul Jones guided-missile destroyer into waters that India had declared as its exclusive economic zone last year. The comments come as India is reeling from the US decision to provide F-16 maintenance support to its arch-enemy Pakistan.
Jabin T Jacob, associate professor at the Department of International Relations and Governance Studies, Shiv Nadar University, told EurAsian Times: “China’s arguments follow a common pattern – they play on differences between India and the US, including the recent ones on Russia-related issues. , emphasizing that China and India share common interests while trying to socialize India to accept Chinese presence and dominance in the Indian Ocean.
However, India will see China as a threat to India’s interests given the record and will refuse to accept any Chinese dominance over the IOR. At the same time, it is also imperative that New Delhi and other members of the Quad reconsider their approach of not targeting China explicitly for military purposes. The lack of clarity hurts the Quad’s ability to effectively deal with the Chinese threat.”
The Chinese military strategist went on to urge his country’s Asian neighbor to better manage its differences and stabilize relations, saying the relationship could have dire consequences if mismanaged. “If left to fate, such an attitude is irresponsible and may also take China-India relations in a disastrous direction,” Jacob said.
The comments are significant for policymakers in India and the Indian Navy, which has embarked on a new course that could mean future engagements and even a dispute with China as the dispute between the two sides moves from the mountains to the sea.
Entry of the Chinese Carrier Battle Group into the IOR
EurAsian Times has previously analyzed the works of Chinese strategists and specialists on China’s plans to develop a modern fleet and their potential application in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). In essence, they support a protectionist and non-interventionist approach focused primarily on the defense of their sea lines of communication (SLOCS).
According to the previous analysis, there were signs of a tough stance on negotiations with the US and India. However, there is no indication of an aggressive stance that could threaten the core of India’s security from the sea.
However, the carrier battle group in the IOR can withdraw from this position.
Further, Zhu’s assertion that India must not attempt to assume the role of “network security provider” in the region suggests that the status quo in the IOR could be challenged, as well as India’s policy goals in the region, which it considers its backyard.
A glimpse of this was seen with the Chinese spy ship Yuan Wang 5, which docked in Sri Lanka in August.
According to Ye Hailin, vice president of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), China has never considered India a core interest; whether it is a partner or an opponent, it is always on a secondary level.
The PLAN is already much larger than the Indian Navy and is expanding rapidly as it refocuses and grows to challenge the US Navy.
Beijing could use excessive naval power against the IOR in the short term. The logistical difficulties of conducting operations in the IOR will be greatly reduced by the presence of an overtly military installation in Djibouti and the proximity of numerous Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) ports.
It is important to note that China already has about 15 front-line replenishment ships. The PLAN’s ability to conduct out-of-area operations is no longer so limited when the Y-20 strategic transporter is operational, the number increases rapidly.
It also has three aircraft carriers in its inventory with state-of-the-art vessels such as the Type 054 and Type 055 in its inventory.
According to Kondapalli, “The Chinese argument for India is that India should not go with the United States, but if you put things in perspective, India has no disputes with the US except for marginal but manageable issues.
On the contrary, Chinese soldiers recently killed 20 Indian soldiers in Galwan. China is essentially taking the same line as the US when it says it wants to expand its presence to protect maritime lines of communication (SLOCS).
With the PLAN in the IOR, it is a completely different ball game as there is an active dispute and rivalry between India and China. It is actually provocative for China to sail its carrier in Indian Ocean waters.
“Chinese surveillance ships have been mapping the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and trying to mine the area for minerals. With the growing needs of India’s economic growth, the prospect of China extracting these minerals from its maritime backyard would be seen as a threat.
The US does sail these waters, but like China, it is not putting pressure on Sri Lanka or the Maldives to grab islands or on Pakistan and Bangladesh to take their ports to balance India. The real challenge to India can never be the United States despite their differences, and there’s absolutely no comparison between Chinese and US presence in the IOR.”
The Western Pacific and the Northern Indian Ocean (from the Middle East and East Africa to the Strait of Malacca) are identified as the core zones for the PLAN.
The PLAN will not challenge the Quad nations in this area as it can only spare three to four ships in the northern IOR and is engaged in an “away game” with inadequate logistical support.
However, with the expansion that the PLAN is undertaking now and going by the statements made by an influential military strategist, this could be in for a significant change.